Intelligence Policy & Management
five-day intensive course
The course will be taught by Dr Paul Monk, Senior Fellow, The Australian Thinking Skills Institute, Melbourne and Visiting Fellow/Guest Lecturer at ANU and Melbourne Universities. Dr Monk is a former defence intelligence analyst.
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‘Intelligence’ is the stream of data and analysis used by states, agencies and corporations to guide their strategic and tactical behaviour. The data are gathered and analysed according to criteria which frequently leave these states, agencies and corporations vulnerable to systematic misperception and consequent tactical and even strategic
This course will offer an introduction to why this is so and to methodologies for overcoming some of the systematic causes of misperception and error in the generation and use of intelligence. In particular, it will introduce participants to a methodology known as ARGUMENT MAPPING. This technique, derived from the insights of cognitive science and modern philosophy, and utilising the new tools provided by information technology, exposes the roots of cognitive biases, makes reasoning processes transparent and assists analysts in making explicit what evidence their beliefs or claims are based on.
It will be shown that classic cases of strategic miscalculation and endemic problems of strategic policy-making are rooted in the cognitive deficiencies of intelligence and policy agencies. Contrary to the naïve realist view that intelligence will always be used and abused by policy-makers because realpolitik ‘works’ in an ‘imperfect’ world, it will be shown that cognitive deficiencies ill-serve realpolitik and that intelligence reform is a highly realistic proposition.